tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62031480292273670052024-03-08T05:19:22.929-06:00Mile High NumbersA close look at the Colorado Rockies and the rest of Major League Baseball, from a statistical perspective.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-14237113614326838692015-03-28T19:06:00.000-05:002015-03-29T21:16:48.402-05:00Out For a While<p>Well, it’s been a while since I’ve written here. It’s been a goal of mine to write a post once in a while, and I’m finally doing it. Hopefully I will have time to write at least once a month from here on out.</p> <p>One of the biggest questions every year for the Rockies, is whether or not Troy Tulowitzki will stay healthy. The optimist in me says it’s more likely that he stays on the field than most people expect, so I decided to take a closer look at Tulo’s injury possibilities.</p> <p>When looking at injuries, there are four scenarios that could happen and have happened to Tulo in his career. The first is that he stays off the DL for the entire season. This occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2011. I’ve included 2011 in this category although he missed 14 out the last 19 games, since he was never out more than 6 in a row.</p> <p>The second is that he has a body breakdown injury that lands him on the DL. This would include a pulled hamstring, hernia, or hip injury. This occurred in 2008, 2012, and 2014.</p> <p>The third option is some kind of freak injury. Breaking your hand while slamming your hand against the wall, or getting hit with a pitch would fall into this category. This occurred in 2008, 2010, and 2013.</p> <p>The fourth possibility is that both injury types occur. As you can see, this happened in 2008 when he had a hamstring pull, and hurt his hand when smashing his bat against a wall.</p> <p>I have assumed that he can not be out more than once for the same injury category. Knock on wood that he won’t.</p> <p>So, in eight full seasons he has had no DL time three times, a normal DL trip twice, a freak injury twice, and both types once.</p> <p>When not on the disabled list, Troy has played 936 out of 1002 possible games. That would average out to 151 games per season, if he could avoid the DL. Then we could model games he will play as a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution">binomial distribution</a> where P = 936/1002, which is approximately .93. This also means that the probability he misses a game is approximately .07.</p> <p>When Troy goes on the DL, the number of days out will follow a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution" target="_blank">normal distribution</a>. If the DL stint is a normal injury, it will have a mean of 74.3 games with a standard deviation of 28.3 games. A freak injury has a mean of 23.7 and standard deviation of 8.2. When both injury types occur, there is still a normal distribution. In this case, the mean of games on the DL will be sum of the two means and the variance will be the sum of the variances. So this will have a mean of 98 games and standard deviation of 29.4 games.</p> <p>Because we have a distribution of games where he is automatically out because he is on the DL, it is easier to calculate the number of games out. In order to be out N games, we must calculate all of the ways he can be on the DL for a certain number of games, then miss the correct number of the remaining games to add up to N games. For example, to be out 100 games, he could be on the DL for 100 games and miss none of the remaining 62. He could also be on the DL for 99, and miss 1 of the remaining 63. This continues until the final possibility where he spends zero days on the DL, but sits for 100 games.</p> <p>This can be written as:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-a-Z6FkFHBRM/VRivhXNPq0I/AAAAAAAAAEE/PzQx0dV5q1M/s1600-h/clip_image002%25255B17%25255D%25255B4%25255D.png"><img title="clip_image002[17]" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="clip_image002[17]" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-wedcYJs5w0c/VRivh_bhOAI/AAAAAAAAAEI/vW4nl6GKNhE/clip_image002%25255B17%25255D_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="353" height="25"></a></p> <p>This can be re-written in Sigma Notation as:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-pnVXGD-irl0/VRiviOM-PNI/AAAAAAAAAEU/sKIgbyQD3EM/s1600-h/clip_image00222%25255B1%25255D.png"><img title="clip_image002[22]" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="clip_image002[22]" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-S7dC3nLNhPg/VRivjeEikjI/AAAAAAAAAEc/jxVjCp-1NT8/clip_image00222_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="267" height="70"></a></p> <p>In a more general sense ,</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-jE1DGHILpMc/VRivj2sKbMI/AAAAAAAAAEg/TSZDA63FGdc/s1600-h/clip_image002%25255B15%25255D%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="clip_image002[15]" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="clip_image002[15]" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-dUkW9ksuomM/VRivkKJLVHI/AAAAAAAAAEo/uxkHb_Thzaw/clip_image002%25255B15%25255D_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="240" height="70"></a></p> <p>Where P<font size="1">OutN</font> is the probability he is out for N games. P<font size="1">DL<em>i</em></font> is the probability he is on the DL for <em>i</em> games, based on a Normal Distribution. P<font size="1">N-<em>i</em>,162-<em>i</em></font> is the probability he is out N – i games out of 162 – 1 games remaining, outside of a DL stint.</p> <p>Once the calculations are done for each scenario, I combined them according to the probability that each occurs. So 3 times no DL, 2 times DL type 1, 2 times DL type 2, and 1 times both DL types. Then I plotted the distribution versus the number of games that would be played to reveal the following:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-58hE_45AuCc/VRivkew3MOI/AAAAAAAAAE0/ORVUJrcpM90/s1600-h/image%25255B6%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; display: block; border-top-width: 0px; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-rJJFlVx5gpI/VRivk4DiCuI/AAAAAAAAAE8/yTWeT2i0hF4/image_thumb%25255B4%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="524" height="381"></a> </p> <p>This graph looks slightly like a normal distribution skewed to the left, but with several peaks and valleys. The peak at around 152 games, corresponds to the mode and indicates the most likely possibility. The mean of the distribution is 116 games, which is slightly less than his average of 120. The median of the distribution is approximately 130 games. If you are going to bet on this, the median is the key number. This indicates that the probability of playing 130 games or more is equal to to the probability of playing less. The calculations also show that the chance that Tulo plays 140 games or more, is about 40%. I’d like that to be higher, but it’s definitely not a long shot.</p> <p>To give more perspective, I have also plotted the overall model with the model for all individual injury scenarios.</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Qnh4dI2jA_o/VRivlcKG-bI/AAAAAAAAAFE/ul7JeglOw7g/s1600-h/image%25255B19%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-d0-oZeUqHMA/VRivmORZ0eI/AAAAAAAAAFM/cQbM6HcaYCA/image_thumb%25255B13%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="524" height="381"></a> </p> <p>There is one other possibility we have with this, that is to ignore the freak injuries. In this case, there will be 3 out of 8 seasons with a DL stint and 5 out of 8 without. Doing so, gives us the following graph:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9WGCKWrsXaM/VRivmqCr-WI/AAAAAAAAAFU/uVLeYvjzgGw/s1600-h/image%25255B23%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-lEAwNw9qH9M/VRivnHk6wqI/AAAAAAAAAFc/FeC-Sx7a738/image_thumb%25255B15%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="524" height="381"></a> </p> <p>This has a similar shape, without the small increase around 130. The mean of this is 125 games. Even better, the median of this is 148 games. This indicates that freak injuries have impacted Tulo’s injury history significantly. If they don’t occur, Troy will play a high number of games. So there is reason to be optimistic, even if the first model happens and not the 2nd. Hopefully that is what happens. In either case, if you’re betting on the number of games Troy Tulowitzki will play, take the over.</p> webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-81292855421730515192010-08-26T04:03:00.002-05:002010-08-26T04:13:18.756-05:00Win Probability<p>One of my favorite baseball pages on the web is the win probability graphs at <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">fangraphs</a>. Simply put, these graphs show the probability of either team winning the chosen game after each play, based on historical results of identical situations. For example the home team is losing by two runs at the end of the 6th inning will win approximately 20% of the time. However if they are down two at the end of the 7th, they only win 15% of the time.</p><p>Here is the graph for today’s big comeback against the Braves. As you can see things were not looking good for the Rockies. It was a near lock until the Rockies scored three in the 5th to make it more manageable. Of course the real swing happened in the 8th inning, when Carlos Gonzalez hit the game tying single. Click on the photo to link to more details about the game.</p><p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2010-08-25&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2010" target="_blank"><img alt="Braves @ Rockies - Wednesday, August 25, 2010" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/20100825_Braves_Rockies_0_88_lbig_.png" width="546" height="368" /></a></p><p>The accompanying play log provides more detailed insight. I have copied an abbreviated version here with the details of the 8th inning.</p><table style="WIDTH: 431pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="575" str="x:str"><colgroup><col style="WIDTH: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3072" width="84"><col style="WIDTH: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2742" width="75"><col style="WIDTH: 21pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1024" width="28"><col style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" width="35"><col style="WIDTH: 28pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1353" width="37"><col style="WIDTH: 45pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2194" width="60"><col style="WIDTH: 38pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1828" width="50"><col style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" width="35"><col style="WIDTH: 38pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1865" width="51"><col style="WIDTH: 35pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1682" width="46"><col style="WIDTH: 29pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1426" width="39"></colgroup><tbody><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="WIDTH: 63pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl24" height="17" width="92"><strong>Pitcher</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 56pt" class="xl25" width="84"><strong>Player</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 21pt" class="xl25" width="41"><strong>Inn</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 26pt" class="xl25" width="44"><strong>Outs</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 28pt" class="xl25" width="43" align="middle"><strong>Base</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 45pt" class="xl25" width="65"><strong>Score</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 38pt" class="xl25" width="55"><strong>Play</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 26pt" class="xl25" width="39"><strong>LI</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 38pt" class="xl25" width="58"><strong>WE</strong></td><td style="WIDTH: 35pt" class="xl25" width="52"><strong>WPA</strong></td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="92">J Venters</td><td width="84">S Smith</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">0</td><td width="43" align="middle">___</td><td class="xl28" width="64">8-10</td><td width="54">K<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">1.85</td><td class="xl29" width="57" align="right" num="0.14199999999999999">14.20%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="x:num">-0.05</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">J Venters</td><td width="84">C Iannetta</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">1</td><td width="43" align="middle">___</td><td class="xl28" width="64">8-10</td><td width="54">BB<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">1.3</td><td class="xl29" width="57" align="right" num="0.19800000000000001">19.80%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="5.7000000000000002E-2">0.057</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">J Venters</td><td width="84">M Mora</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">1</td><td width="43" align="middle">1__</td><td class="xl28" width="64">8-10</td><td width="55">1B<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">2.49</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.27800000000000002">27.80%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="x:num">0.08</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">J Venters</td><td width="84">E Young Jr.</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">1</td><td width="43" align="middle">12_</td><td class="xl28" width="63">8-10</td><td width="54">FC, 4-6<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">4.13</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.188">18.80%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="-8.8999999999999996E-2">-0.089</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">J Venters</td><td width="84">D Fowler</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">2</td><td width="43" align="middle">1_3</td><td class="xl28" width="63">8-10</td><td width="54">BB<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">3.45</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.249">24.90%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="x:num">0.06</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">J Venters</td><td width="84">C Gonzalez</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">2</td><td width="43" align="middle" num="x:num"><p align="center">123</p></td><td class="xl28" width="63">10-10</td><td width="54">1B<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">6.04</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.61199999999999999">61.20%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="0.36299999999999999">0.363</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">K Farnsworth</td><td width="84">T Tulowitzki</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">2</td><td width="43" align="middle">1_3</td><td class="xl28" width="63">11-10</td><td width="54">1B<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">3.81</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.84899999999999998">84.90%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="0.23699999999999999">0.237</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl27" height="17" width="93">K Farnsworth</td><td width="84">T Helton</td><td width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td width="44" align="right" num="x:num">2</td><td width="43" align="middle">12_</td><td class="xl28" width="63">12-10</td><td width="54">1B<br /></td><td width="39" align="right" num="x:num">1.14</td><td class="xl29" width="58" align="right" num="0.93100000000000005">93.10%</td><td width="52" align="right" num="8.2000000000000003E-2">0.082</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17"><td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" class="xl31" height="17" width="93">K Farnsworth</td><td class="xl32" width="84">M Belisle</td><td class="xl32" width="41" align="right" num="x:num">8</td><td class="xl32" width="44" align="right" num="x:num">2</td><td class="xl32" width="43" align="middle">1_3</td><td class="xl33" width="63">12-10</td><td class="xl32" width="54">K<br /></td><td class="xl32" width="39" align="right" num="x:num">0.61</td><td class="xl34" width="58" align="right" num="0.91300000000000003">91.30%</td><td class="xl32" width="52" align="right" num="-1.7999999999999999E-2">-0.018</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Notice that as each runner got on base, the <em>win expectancy</em> (WE) slowly creeped up. Naturally it went down as each out was made. Of course the big blow was Cargo’s single which increased the probability of of Rockies win from 24.9% to 61.2%. This is also indicated by the <em>win probability added</em> (WPA) column which is .363. It should be noted, that while the three base runners who reached ahead of Cargo did not increase the win expectancy very much, they did each push up the <em>leverage index</em> (LI) so that Cargo’s at-bat had the significance that it did. In other words, Cargo’s hit was the critical play. However, Iannetta, Mora (replace by Young on the fielder’s choice), and Fowler reaching base set up his big chance. Clearly while those plays did not have the impact of Cargo’s single, it could not have happened without those other three guys getting on base.</p><p>In case you’re curious here are win probability graphs for some other famous games in Rockies history.</p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=1995-04-26&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=1995" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/19950426_Mets_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2007-10-15&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2007" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20071015_Diamondbacks_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2009-08-24&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2009" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20090824_Giants_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p><p align="center"></p><p align="center"></p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2009-09-29&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2009" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20090929_Brewers_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2010-06-23&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2010" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20100623_RedSox_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p><p align="center"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2010-07-06&team=Rockies&dh=0&season=2010"><img border="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20100706_Cardinals_Rockies_0_score.png" /></a></p>webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-58432792299780838902010-08-04T06:23:00.002-05:002010-08-04T06:26:47.799-05:00Performance Pie<p>When comparing performance of different players, it can be easy to get overwhelmed by different numbers. So I’ve decided to take a more visual approach to evaluation. By using pie charts showing the six possible outcomes (walk, 1b, 2b, 3b, hr) for a batter and the percentage of plate appearances that each occurs, you can get a good idea of what a player has really done at the plate. Outs are represented by red, while the positive events are in various shades of yellow or green. Raw totals are shown along with the percentages that each event occurred. I’ve done this for this season’s performance (through Aug. 1) for all Rockies players with at least 100 PA’s this year. It should be noted that these charts do not necessarily predict future performance, only what has happened. (Click on the pics to enlarge.)</p><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" width="550"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNm7MyfoI/AAAAAAAAABM/hA9i_hIi-rE/s1600-h/cg.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="cg" border="0" alt="cg" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNnbTFYGI/AAAAAAAAABQ/OwkITMXNyCI/cg_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNnglJE6I/AAAAAAAAABU/npY1AWFpKak/s1600-h/is.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="is" border="0" alt="is" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNny6barI/AAAAAAAAABY/eDJQPSmqRmo/is_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNoVx8qFI/AAAAAAAAABc/aH4WKgOeEXM/s1600-h/cb.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="cb" border="0" alt="cb" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNoqZZVSI/AAAAAAAAABg/RwiV_geI0bA/cb_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNpAzj0bI/AAAAAAAAABk/ka6eGF_N3F4/s1600-h/mo.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="mo" border="0" alt="mo" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNpTrMHPI/AAAAAAAAABo/9BSwci0jrK0/mo_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNp8VOEvI/AAAAAAAAABs/uUXCBVOUpP4/s1600-h/tt.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="tt" border="0" alt="tt" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNqP3TeqI/AAAAAAAAABw/vHHuSPZ_0ig/tt_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNqcO7VxI/AAAAAAAAAB0/y4dVtnMEc3w/s1600-h/th.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="th" border="0" alt="th" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNq6NdWKI/AAAAAAAAAB4/1J8iggky9rA/th_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNrAt_nfI/AAAAAAAAAB8/0SK7Xxqzgqg/s1600-h/df.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="df" border="0" alt="df" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNrcZwioI/AAAAAAAAACA/lgMH7ejeZg4/df_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNr6j9YBI/AAAAAAAAACE/YC-uUGeZxI0/s1600-h/ss.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="ss" border="0" alt="ss" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNsMmaooI/AAAAAAAAACI/kBiePoJZEPA/ss_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNsSlG3sI/AAAAAAAAACM/2iDZFVKL37Q/s1600-h/bh.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="bh" border="0" alt="bh" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNs2NdHQI/AAAAAAAAACQ/8X2DE_UjKwg/bh_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNtJkXkfI/AAAAAAAAACU/36Dc3fbyjc0/s1600-h/rs.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="rs" border="0" alt="rs" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNte4P3MI/AAAAAAAAACY/fTRzln1aqUM/rs_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNt2boLqI/AAAAAAAAACc/9i0xuOOxm9k/s1600-h/mm.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="mm" border="0" alt="mm" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNuH7z_3I/AAAAAAAAACg/r_qd0EWQN08/mm_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNuZ0UhWI/AAAAAAAAACk/kKaCahqGxPc/s1600-h/jh.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="jh" border="0" alt="jh" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNu6q1LmI/AAAAAAAAACo/PlZyeusHDXw/jh_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNvc4WYBI/AAAAAAAAACs/qEiFM-GbyKY/s1600-h/jg.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="jg" border="0" alt="jg" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNvxH_abI/AAAAAAAAACw/QihyLrcbLSw/jg_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td><td valign="top" width="274"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNwTuYf9I/AAAAAAAAAC0/qdB7zGyGgrI/s1600-h/ci.png"><img style="BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px" title="ci" border="0" alt="ci" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_wzMUmaWbhl8/TFlNw2bR_AI/AAAAAAAAAC4/jb_O-2QgAXU/ci_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="168" /></a> </td></tr></tbody></table><p>Some interesting things appear when the data is viewed in this way. Jason Giambi has the biggest slice of good events. This directly corresponds to having the highest on base percentage on the team. (The higher the OBP, the more good pie.) What is somewhat surprising as that the higher value events (2b, hr) occur less frequently then you might expect. However, there is still enough green and yellow pie there to not be considered punchless. Carlos Gonzalez’ chart shows that while he hasn’t done something good as often as some of his teammates, the value of what he has done has been very big. With a big chunk of orange, yellow, and green Carlos has clearly done a lot of damage. This also brings new insight to some position battles. Jonny Herrera and Clint Barmes have very similar proportions of red on their chart, however Clint has more green and yellow to Jonny’s orange. In other words, Clint’s advantage in the power department clearly comes through. Similarly, Brad Hawpe’s bigger cream section (walks) doesn’t quite measure up to Seth Smith’s bigger orange and dark green sections.</p><p>There are many different options that could be done with these. You could break outs down into strikeouts and outs in play, which would give you a rough idea of who is getting himself out and who is being put out by defenses. You could also have a chart for different splits, over careers or single seasons. I would really like it if others started using this approach to demonstrate player performance. Perhaps one of the big baseball websites that has the technology to do so can include these pie charts along with player profiles, to update with their stats. After all, there’s nothing wrong with having another tool to help us gain insight into player performance.</p>webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-51169819311991367102010-06-23T05:40:00.001-05:002010-06-23T05:40:59.777-05:00Was Chris Iannetta Afraid to Swing the Bat?<p>Before Chris Iannetta’s surprising demotion earlier this season, he had come under fire for not being aggressive enough. In particular, by one the Rockies’ tv commentators in a game about a week before being sent down. As a fan of patient hitting, I was pretty ok with Chris not chasing a low fast ball on the outside corner, that would have surely turned into a 4-6-3 double play if he had offered at it. The commentator was a lot quieter when Chris ended up with a base hit.</p> <p>Having seen a lot of criticism about Chris being too patient, it got me wondering if the perception was true. Was he afraid to swing the bat? Looking at the following tables from <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com">Fangraphs</a>, the answer up to this year was clearly NO.</p> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="500"><tbody> <tr> <td width="70">Season</td> <td width="73">O-Swing%</td> <td width="74">Z-Swing%</td> <td width="73">Swing%</td> <td width="73">Outside</td> <td width="64">Zone</td> <td width="71">Total</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">2006</td> <td width="73">17.30%</td> <td width="74">75.90%</td> <td width="73">48.80%</td> <td width="73">175</td> <td width="64">203</td> <td width="71">378</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">2007</td> <td width="73">17.90%</td> <td width="74">70.60%</td> <td width="73">46.20%</td> <td width="73">432</td> <td width="64">502</td> <td width="71">934</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">2008</td> <td width="73">16.20%</td> <td width="74">72.30%</td> <td width="73">44.00%</td> <td width="73">853</td> <td width="64">836</td> <td width="71">1689</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">2009</td> <td width="73">16.70%</td> <td width="74">72.30%</td> <td width="73">45.60%</td> <td width="73">709</td> <td width="64">765</td> <td width="71">1474</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">2010</td> <td width="73">18.80%</td> <td width="74">68.70%</td> <td width="73">44.30%</td> <td width="73">69</td> <td width="64">72</td> <td width="71">141</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="70">Total *</td> <td width="73">16.80%</td> <td width="74">72.20%</td> <td width="73">45.30%</td> <td width="73">2239</td> <td width="64">2377</td> <td width="71">4616</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p> </p> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="300"><tbody> <tr> <td width="66">Season</td> <td width="79">O-Swing%</td> <td width="77">Z-Swing%</td> <td width="76">Swing%</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="66">2006</td> <td width="79">23.50%</td> <td width="77">66.60%</td> <td width="76">46.10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="66">2007</td> <td width="79">25.00%</td> <td width="77">66.60%</td> <td width="76">45.90%</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="66">2008</td> <td width="79">25.40%</td> <td width="77">65.40%</td> <td width="76">45.90%</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="66">2009</td> <td width="79">25.10%</td> <td width="77">65.90%</td> <td width="76">45.20%</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="66">2010</td> <td width="79">28.30%</td> <td width="77">63.90%</td> <td width="76">45.10%</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p> </p> <p>The first of these tables shows Chris’s swing percentage outside and inside the zone (noted by O-Swing% and Z-Swing% respectively) as well as the total percentage of pitches swung at. The second part of the first table shows the number of pitches seen outside, inside, and total. This is all based on data up to Chris’s demotion.</p> <p>Compare the first table to the second, which contains Major League averages of swing percentages over each year of Chris’s career. You’ll notice that Chris has been consistently good at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. What me be surprising to some is that Chris is more aggressive on balls in the zone than the average major leaguer. It should be noted there was a <em>slight</em> decrease in pitches swung at in the zone. However, because of the sample size this means that he swung at only two fewer pitches than he normally would have. From Jim Tracy’s view that may have been all he needed to see, even if the stats don’t show the same urgency.</p> <p>The next question we have to ask is “Has Chris become more aggressive since his recall?” The following table shows Chris’s swing rates since his recall.</p> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="500"><tbody> <tr> <td width="90">O-Swing%</td> <td width="85">Z-Swing%</td> <td width="85">Swing%</td> <td width="85">Outside</td> <td width="70">Zone</td> <td width="83">Total</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="90">30.07%</td> <td width="85">68.87%</td> <td width="85">46.19%</td> <td width="85">55</td> <td width="70">104</td> <td width="83">159</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p>It practically jumps off the page. That outside zone swing percentage has gone up to over 30%. So Chris has become more aggressive, but not in a a good way. Strangely enough, his walk rate has been higher than usual at 21%. His K rate since then, also at 21%, is close to his career norm. Coincidentally or not, the one thing missing is the power. Chris has only 1 double in 36 pa’s since being recalled. Of course it’s probably too early to make any real conclusions out of that.</p> <p>This is something worth following over the course of the year. Something tells me Chris won’t develop from a guy who has been criticized for being too patient, to someone who doesn’t see any pitches he doesn’t like.</p> webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-68850354536749216442010-04-24T04:10:00.005-05:002010-04-24T04:54:23.853-05:00Rain OutFirst off, I want to say how unfortunate it is that Rockies President, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Keli</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">McGregor</span>, passed away earlier this past week. From what I know of him, he was very nice and sincere person. All the best to his family and friends.<br /><br />It is somewhat fitting that we have dreary weather in the forecast for this weekend. Tonight's game got postponed due to rain/cold and will be made up tomorrow as part of a <em>true</em> doubleheader. I must say that I was disappointed to have the game called right I was getting to my seat, but I am pretty excited to go to the doubleheader tomorrow. I don't recall ever going to a doubleheader before, so this will be my first. I only hope neither of the games get rained out. Otherwise, I'll look forward to watching 'em play two.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-42662877763197555792010-04-18T02:36:00.002-05:002010-04-18T03:32:18.469-05:00U-baldo!I'm pretty wound up right now, but who could blame me after <a href="http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100417&content_id=9375368&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=col">this</a> happened. Looking back I wonder if people realize how special this is. Obviously, anyone should realize that it any no hitter is a big deal. It gets even bigger to throw the first in the history of your team, for any club. What really makes this special, is how miserable the Rockies pitching staff had been through most of the team's history. Until the past few years, the pitching staff was notoriously awful. Part of the <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">improvement</span> may be due to bringing in the humidor, but a large part of that was simply lack of pitching talent. Who can forget the immortal Jamey <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">Wright</span> or David <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Nied</span>, and that legendary bullpen crew of Steve Reed, Darren Holmes, and Mike "Moonshot" Munoz? I certainly can't.<br /><br />We've come a long way. We've gone from hoping the starter could hold the other team to less than 5 runs, to expecting quality starts every time out, and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">believing</span> that a few members of the staff could throw a no-hitter. Now, it's actually happened. I for one won't forget <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Ubaldo's</span> performance. More than that I won't forget the road the Rockies organization has traveled to have a starting pitcher who is even capable of throwing a no hitter, let alone actually doing it.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-16942833496132440432010-04-17T06:33:00.002-05:002010-04-18T02:41:35.705-05:00Panic Time?!?!<p>This is always sort of a frustrating time for me to be a baseball fan. Every year it seems people get hysterical when someone gets off to a slow start, when they just need to relax and let things develop. There are a lot of examples of people jumping to conclusions base on small samples. Your centerfielder is hitting .190? Bench him? After 37 AB’s, probably not. Your team is playing .500 ball after 10 games, so turn the whole roster over? No. The team has scored 51 runs in those 10 games, and has scored at least 4 runs in 9 of those 10 games, so make drastic changes to the lineup? I don’t think so! The solution is to have some patience and let everything settle, if you will.</p><p>Earlier I read Dexter Fowler was a “liability” in the lineup, because of his .189 batting average, so I’ll use him as an example. Dex’s batting average has come in 37 at bats, which is pretty obviously not very many. So how many is enough to actually worry? We can build a simple hypothesis test for a player’s batting average based on his current average, and his number of at bats. Given Dex’s ability to get on base (which is the real thing we care about, and deserves more analysis later), he needs to bat at least .250 to be a useful part of the lineup. If I’m Dan O’Dowd/Jim Tracy I’m going to want strong evidence that he’s not before I hit the panic button. Assuming at bats follow a typical binomial pattern, we test the hypothesis that the player is a .250 hitter after <em>n</em> at bats. It turns out that the number of AB’s that a player batting .189 can have before we feel truly confident that he’s not at least a .250 hitter is 111. (I’m more than willing to explain my math, if anyone asks.) That means Dexter only has 74 more AB's to get his average above .190. Don’t worry, something tells me he’ll do it.</p>webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-21986471780380859762009-11-05T02:27:00.018-06:002009-11-11T06:11:51.733-06:00The Best BandboxRecently I was downloading some data for a project that I have planned relating to <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor">park factor</a>, when I had a moment of inspiration. It occurred to me that one could get a rough idea of how easy it is to hit a home run, at a given stadium, simply by finding the percentage of batted balls that were home runs. In other words, dividing the number of home runs by the number of AB's where the batter did not strike out would yield a home run rate. The higher the rate, the easier it is to hit home runs. The equation is simple and looks like this:<br /><br />R=HR/(AB-K)<br /><br />Before doing this, my belief was that Coors field would not ave the highest rate. I also had a suspicion that a certain stadium would have the highest rate. So I ran the numbers, looking at both the home team's and away teams' home run rate for each stadium in 2009. Here are the results:<br /><br /><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="399"><tbody><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">Club</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Stadium</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">Team</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">Opponents</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">Total</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYY</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Yankee Stadium III</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.96%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.61%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.30%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">TEX</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Rangers Ballpark in Arlington</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.80%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.02%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.87%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">PHI</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Citizens Bank Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.02%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.42%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.71%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIL</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Miller Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.83%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.55%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.69%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHA</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Comiskey Park II</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.77%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.03%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.40%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">TOR</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">SkyDome</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.67%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.07%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.37%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">CIN</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Great American Ballpark</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.46%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.20%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.33%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">TAM</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Tropicana Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.97%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.70%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.31%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">BOS</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Fenway Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.38%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.26%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.30%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">BAL</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Oriole Park at Camden Yards</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.15%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.42%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.29%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAA</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Angel Stadium of Anaheim</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.01%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.53%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.27%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">DET</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Comerica Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.26%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.98%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.12%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIN</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.22%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.87%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.04%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">ARI</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Chase Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.07%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.82%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.94%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">COL</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Coors Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.59%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.30%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.93%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">FLA</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Dolphin Stadium</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.99%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.74%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.87%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">MLB Average</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;"></span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.00%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.63%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.81%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHN</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Wrigley Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.87%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.74%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.80%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">HOU</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Minute Maid Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.84%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.71%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">WAS</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Nationals Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">SEA</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Safeco Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.50%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.51%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.51%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">OAK</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Network Associates Coliseum</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.25%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.07%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.16%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">PIT</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">PNC Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.39%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.92%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.15%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">SDG</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">PetCo Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.05%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.16%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.11%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">SFG</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">AT&T Park</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.11%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.07%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.09%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">CLE</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Jacobs Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.10%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.05%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.07%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">KAN</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Kauffman Stadium</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.87%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.01%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.94%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAD</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Dodger Stadium</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.18%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.68%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.94%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYM</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Citi Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.22%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.61%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.92%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">ATL</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Turner Field</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.18%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.55%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.87%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">STL</span></td><td width="114"><span style="font-size:78%;">Busch Stadium II</span></td><td width="61"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.06%</span></td><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.41%</span></td><td width="60"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.73%</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />As you can see, the new Yankee Stadium comes out on top, with 5.3% of batted balls hit here turning into home runs. So that's it, the new Yankee Stadium is the easiest place to hit it out. Coors Field, as I guessed, was not really an easy place to hit home home runs. Unfortunately it's not that simple. These results may have more to do with each team's ability to hit home runs, and of their pitching staff's inability to keep the ball in the yard. So a team with lot of power and poor pitching is likely to score high on this list.<br /><br />So in order to adjust for a team's ability, a new value must be found. The first step that I took was to recalculate the above table for each team while on the road. The following table shows these rates:<br /><br /><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="236"><tbody><tr><td width="83"><span style="font-size:78%;">Club</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">Team</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">Opponents</span></td><td width="42"><span style="font-size:78%;">Total</span></td></tr><tr><td width="82"><span style="font-size:78%;">PHI</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">5.10%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.09%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.61%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">CLE</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.27%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.89%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.58%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">TAM</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.45%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.62%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.54%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">BOS</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.25%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.40%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.32%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYY</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.57%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.86%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.23%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">TOR</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.30%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.13%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.22%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIL</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.71%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.69%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.21%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">DET</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.02%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.27%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.14%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">TEX</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.70%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.58%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.14%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">KAN</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.63%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.65%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.13%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">SDG</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.56%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.55%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.05%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">SEA</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.69%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.23%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.95%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">COL</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.63%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.24%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.92%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">ARI</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.04%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.76%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.89%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">WAS</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.71%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.90%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.80%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">BAL</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.79%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.79%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.78%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">MLB Average</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.63%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.83%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.73%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIN</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.28%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.17%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.72%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">STL</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.15%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.18%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.67%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHA</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.55%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.66%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.60%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">CIN</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.88%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.27%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">FLA</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.33%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.72%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.52%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAA</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.57%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.45%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.51%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">HOU</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.83%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.21%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.50%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHN</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.62%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">4.01%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.39%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAD</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.23%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.45%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.33%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">OAK</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.72%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.90%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.29%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">ATL</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.47%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.02%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.25%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">PIT</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.42%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.89%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.17%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">SFG</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.54%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.83%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.14%</span></td></tr><tr><td width="81"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYM</span></td><td width="44"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.98%</span></td><td width="66"><span style="font-size:78%;">3.47%</span></td><td width="43"><span style="font-size:78%;">2.71%</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />In this table it can be seen that the Phillies had the highest rate of batted balls becoming home runs. This was largely due to their ability to hit home runs at a high rate. While on the road, 5.1% of batted balls by the Phillies became home runs. While at home, <em>only</em> 5.02% of their batted balls were home runs. Their opponenets did benefit by playing in Philly, with 4.42% of batted balls at the Bank becoming home runs and only 4.09% becoming home runs in Phillies' away games.<br /><br />The next step is to divide the data in the two tables to determine the increase (or decrease) in rate of home runs to batted balls when a team is in it's home park. If there is an increase in thee ratios when playing at home, then playing in that stadium is beneficial to hitting home runs. The following table shows the ratios:<br /><br /><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="400"><tbody><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">Club</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Stadium</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">Team</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">Opponents</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">Total</span></td></tr><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYY</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Yankee Stadium III</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.3056</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1962</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2519</span></td></tr><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHA</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Comiskey Park II</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.3416</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1034</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2201</span></td></tr><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAA</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Angel Stadium of Anaheim</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1240</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.3148</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2180</span></td></tr><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">CIN</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Great American Ballpark</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.5495</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9856</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2118</span></td></tr><tr><td width="70"><span style="font-size:78%;">TEX</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Rangers Ballpark in Arlington</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2330</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1252</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1769</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">BAL</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Oriole Park at Camden Yards</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.4903</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9230</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1341</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">CHN</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Wrigley Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0678</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9334</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1240</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIL</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Miller Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.3014</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9704</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1140</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">FLA</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Dolphin Stadium</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2000</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0060</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0988</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">MIN</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2859</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9264</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0865</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">NYM</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Citi Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1203</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0393</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0776</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">HOU</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Minute Maid Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2611</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9129</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0592</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">TOR</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">SkyDome</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0866</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9850</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0360</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">PHI</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Citizens Bank Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9838</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0789</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0229</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">MLB Average</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;"></span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1026</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9469</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0220</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">ARI</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Chase Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0083</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0166</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0115</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">COL</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Coors Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9919</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0183</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0022</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">PIT</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">PNC Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.4016</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7524</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9945</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">BOS</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Fenway Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2665</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7404</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9943</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">DET</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Comerica Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.0596</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9325</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9942</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">SFG</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">AT&T Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.2255</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8025</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9834</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">OAK</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Network Associates Coliseum</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1973</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7875</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9600</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">TAM</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Tropicana Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">1.1169</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8009</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9511</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">WAS</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Nationals Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9643</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9162</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9393</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">SEA</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Safeco Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9481</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8310</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8870</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">LAD</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Dodger Stadium</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9851</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7783</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8815</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">ATL</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Turner Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.9157</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8462</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8812</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">SDG</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">PetCo Park</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.8576</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.6942</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7679</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">STL</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Busch Stadium II</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7373</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7589</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7429</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">KAN</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Kauffman Stadium</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7897</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.6460</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7110</span></td></tr><tr><td width="69"><span style="font-size:78%;">CLE</span></td><td width="153"><span style="font-size:78%;">Jacobs Field</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.7257</span></td><td width="71"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.6239</span></td><td width="52"><span style="font-size:78%;">0.6706</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />As it turns out, new Yankee Stadium is the easiest stadium in the Major Leagues to hit a home run, with 25.19% more batted balls landing in the seats than in Yankee away games. Although Yankee Stadium provided the biggest increase in home run rate, the Yankees didn't benefit as much as some other teams. The rate of home runs was 55% higher at home for the Cincinnatti Reds than when they were on the road. Their opponents actually hit homeruns at a slightly lesser rate, when coming into Great American Ballpark. As it turns out, the Rockies had a tougher time in 2009 hitting home runs while on the road, than while at Coors. Their opponents did benefit slightly, but overall the rate was nearly the same as in away games.<br /><br />This analysis provides a new look on whether or not a stadium really is a good home run park or not. Unlike park factor, which only considers the amount of homeruns per game, this method looks deeper and find the number of homeruns per batted ball. This is important since other factors may lead to increased number of plate appearances per game, in certain stadiums. The additional plate appearances add to the number of homeruns, thus slightly inflating the home run park factor. Like park factor, there is still a flaw which I will discuss further in a future post. Until then, hopefully I have shed some light on which ballparks really are home run friendly and which are not.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-56441761353907230292009-10-22T03:13:00.000-05:002009-10-22T04:47:56.345-05:00My Thoughts on Sabermetrics<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Sabermetrics</span>, if you've never heard of it, is the use of various <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">statistical</span> methods to evaluate baseball players and teams. It is actually somewhat controversial because many people in <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">MLB</span> like to stick to their traditions, and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span> flies in the face of that. There are countless jokes about <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetricians</span> all living in their mom's basement and don't actually watch the games. In spite of the resistance, the use of <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span> has actually become more common in recent years. Several teams, most notably the Oakland A's, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Sox</span> have used high level analysis to help build their teams.<br /><br />I decided to start blogging with the hopes I can add something to the science. If nothing else, I could provide a unique perspective to my hometown team, the <a href="http://coloradorockies.com/">Colorado Rockies</a>. Before I go further with my work there are a few thoughts on the science I would like to share.<br /><br />First of all, I actually believe that <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span> backs up a lot of what traditional baseball thinking has always taught. For example, the old saying "Don't make the first or third out at third base" can be supported using <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span>. Of course you shouldn't be willing to make any outs, but the 1st and third are especially damaging. I also think that things that happen on the field can be explained <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">using</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span>, such as a player who seems to always find the hole may indeed have a high batting average on balls in play (<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">BABIP</span>).<br /><br />I don't <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">necessarily</span> agree with everything that <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span> tends to support. For one thing I don't believe there is a tell all statistic. Every stat tells you something about a different player's ability. Even though, on-base percentage (<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span>) is more valuable than batting average (AVG), I don't think it's totally useless. I do think that it can show the likelihood of a batter driving in a runner in "scoring <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">position</span>." Of course a high slugging percentage (<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span>) will indicate a batter is more likely to drive in a runner who is NOT in scoring position. There is also the notion that <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-error">sabermetrics</span> is only about walks and home runs. I would disagree and feel that it is also about singles, doubles, and the occasional triple. Another common belief among stat guys, that I don't really believe, is that pitchers have <em>no</em> control over their <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_18" class="blsp-spelling-error">BABIP</span>.<br /><br />I am doing this for the fun of it and to hopefully gain more insight to the game. But if any team's GM reads this and wants to hire me, please send me a message. I'll get back to you right away. I also welcome any constructive comments about my work. However, if you're <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_19" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">going</span> to drop a "<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_20" class="blsp-spelling-error">momma's</span> basement" joke on me, you can get lost.<br /><br />There are a number of projects that I plan to work on as I write. I plan to look closer at park factors, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_21" class="blsp-spelling-error">BABIP</span> from the hitter's <em>and</em> the pitchers perspective, and would even like to do some work with <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071002&content_id=2245402&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb">Pitch F/X</a> data. I am really excited about all of this. I only wish I had started doing this sooner. There's a lot of discoveries to be made, so I had better get to work.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-63312895615201823272009-10-18T02:10:00.000-05:002009-10-18T03:48:01.635-05:00Franklin Morales, LOOGYIt's funny how a bad outings (or a streak of them) can affect people's perception of a player. Case in point, is Franklin Morales who had a breakout season in a relief role. He pitched well enough that when Huston Street was injured, he took over the closer role. He recorded saves in his first 6 opportunities, then began to struggle. His struggles, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">highlighted</span> by a 5 run, 7<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span></span> inning in Los Angeles left many fans feeling that he should have been left off the roster. There was one good <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">reason</span> he made it: he had been very tough against left handed batters. With Philly's lineup of left handed, the move to include Morales, only made sense.<br /><br />The move paid off, with Franklin pitching 2 and 1/3 perfect innings in the first three games of the series. All of that good work was quickly forgotten, however, thanks to his 3 walk (1 intentional) performance in game 4. Of course he did do one very important thing that inning - get Ryan Howard out. Many fans were again ready to show Morales the door, but I say hold on.<br /><br />First off, I am never one to judge a player based on one stretch. It's much more telling to look at the player's body of work. One thing that pops out about <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Morales</span>' career is how good he has been against lefty batters. I feel the Rockies should keep him since he has a great chance to be an outstanding left handed one out guy (a <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">LOOGY</span></span>).<br /><br />Over his 3 year career, Morales has given up an AVG/<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span></span>/<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span></span> of .185/.276/.277 vs left <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">handers</span></span> (.175/.247/.275 in 2009). His numbers vs. <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">righties</span></span> are .274/.373/.396 in his career and .277/.366./405 in 2009. While facing <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">righties</span></span> he has clearly been hittable, although they have not hit him for much power. Against lefties he has been flat out dominant. That kind of arm is not easily replaced.<br /><br />One of the big criticisms of Morales has been his tendency to walk too many batters. This is certainly justified, since has was walked 12.4% of the batters he has faced in his career. Interestingly, his splits again tell a deeper story. While walking 13.3% of right handed batters, Morales has walked only 9.2% of lefties, a more acceptable rate.<br /><br />Hopefully the Rockies can take a close look at his effectiveness vs left <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">handers</span></span> and keep him around. More importantly, I hope they know to use him vs lefty bats and limit his work vs <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error"><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">righties</span></span>. After all, a misused reliever can do as much damage as a bad one.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-7677613909658018462009-10-14T05:29:00.000-05:002009-10-17T05:56:26.396-05:00Rocktober is OverThe Rockies season is over. After splitting two games in Philly, the Rocks came home and took two tough losses. I'm not going to write much specifically about the games. I will however tip my hat to <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Yorvit</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Torrealba</span>, who got a big clutch double in game 4 and a home run in game 2. Although I still don't think he is as good as he played over the past month and a half, he did come through in those spots.<br /><br />A few observations about the playoffs in general so far:<br /><br />Three pretty good closers blew saves, while one lousy one managed to get two and blow zero. It just goes to show how anything can happen in a short series. Fair or not, Joe Nathan, Jonathan <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Papelbon</span>, and Huston Street are all now rumored to be with new teams next year. Of course there was probably a chance all three would be gone anyway.<br /><br />The umpiring was horrible around the league. While it's impossible to say that any team would have or wouldn't have won if the calls had been made correctly, it's reasonable to say that we shouldn't have to wonder. It should be up to the players to win or lose games, not umps. Now is the time to expand instant replay. Before that can happen, a few questions about the procedures must be answered:<br /><br />Can replay happen quick enough not to slow down games?<br />What types of plays can be reviewed?<br />How will the plays be reviewed? (I.e. 5<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> ump in booth)<br />How will the Replays be initiated? (Personally, I think it should be up to the umps, although managers should have some way to ask for them. However, I do not think there should be any punishment for a failed review, like in football. I don't want to see anyone lose a game because they asked for a review, and was forced to give up an out. I also would not want to see a play not be reviewed that should, because a manager is afraid of being punished. If you do that you are changing the game too much.)<br />What will be done if continuity of a play is interrupted and how can you prevent that from happening? (My suggestion is that an ump can give a signal on a close play to "play it out" and that it will be reviewed when the play is over. If the review shows a fair ball, for example, then everyone stays where they ended up. If you do not have this, then a foul call that is over turned will require judgement by the umps to figure out where each runner should be.)<br />Where does the burden of proof lie? (In football, if a play is inconclusive then the ruling on the field stands. That may be logical, but in some cases, I don't think that would be the best way to handle it. For example if an ump says a fielder came off the base, or a runner missed a base, I feel that a replay should have to clearly show that happened, regardless of what the play was called on the field.)<br /><br />Hopefully the league will spend some time this winter figuring out these questions and implement replay for next season, before something like <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/After-Phil-Cuzzi-s-blown-call-MLB-needs-to-put-?urn=mlb,195187">this</a> or <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Umpires-continue-playoff-slump-blow-call-twice-?urn=mlb,195343">this</a> happens again.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-68970177776395814302009-10-08T03:13:00.000-05:002009-10-08T05:50:52.590-05:00Who Should Start?The Rockies are down 1 game to none vs the <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Phillies</span>. Cliff Lee was dominant throughout the game, only giving up one run in the ninth. As with any playoff game where you only get 1 run, fans are obviously calling for changes to be made. The Rockies reputation as being a team the hits left <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">handers</span> poorly only heightens the sense of urgency, with Cole <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hamels</span> starting game 2. Changes need to be made to the lineup, but which ones?<br /><br />I decided to look at splits vs left <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">handers</span> for all of the Rockies hitters to see if an optimal lineup could be found. There are several positions which are considered to be up in the air: 2<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">nd</span> base, catcher, third base, and up to all three outfield spots. I had planned on comparing slugging and on base percentages for each positional battle. If one player had a higher slugging but lower <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span>, I would use baseball <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">musing's</span> <a href="http://http//www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py">Lineup Analysis Tool</a> to determine which lineup would score the most amount of runs per game; the one with player A (high <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span>) or player B (high <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span>). It turned out to not be necessary, as in EVERY situation, the player with the higher <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span> vs lefties also had the higher <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span>. (There was a different order among the three outfielders, however the top three in <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span> were also the the top three in <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span>.)<br /><br />The winners are with <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span>/<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">SLG</span>:<br /><br />C. Chris <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">Iannetta</span> .406/.580<br />1B. Todd <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">Helton</span> .369/.372<br />2B. Clint <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-error">Barmes</span> .314/.496<br />3B. Garrett Atkins .363/.428<br />SS. Troy <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_18" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tulowitzki</span> .382/.519<br />OF. Seth Smith .368/.500<br />OF. Dexter Fowler .377/.482<br />OF. Carlos Gonzalez .343/.466<br /><br />It's unlikely that these are going to be the starting 8 position players. My guess is that Stewart gets the start over Atkins for his defense, and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_19" class="blsp-spelling-error">Spilly</span> gets the start over Seth Smith. It should be pointed out that there may be some sample size issues, as these are 2009 numbers and not career numbers. However, I doubt the Rockies are really looking close enough to the numbers to care.<br /><br />Hopefully whichever lineup they go with does something. I don't want to be sitting out in the cold on Saturday being down 0-2.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-8547829925546294432009-10-05T02:14:00.000-05:002009-10-06T17:09:34.190-05:00The Case for Chris IannettaEven before <a href="http://http//colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090929&content_id=7232938&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=col">this</a> happened, I've been saying the same thing to anybody that would listen: Chris Iannetta should be the Rockies' starting catcher. Unfortunately a lot of people out there don't, most importantly Jim Tracy, don't seem to agree. With the playoffs starting soon, I think now is the time to lay out my case.<br /><br />Iannetta's critics like to point out a number of things why he shouldn't be in there. His .228 batting average and high strikeouts have doomed Iannetta in the eyes of many. Of course the biggest road block for Iannetta has been that his replacement has been on fire.<br /><br />Since taking over the starting job on Aug 29, Yorvit Torrealba has had an AVG of .319 with an OBP of .373. Both numbers are very good, but his SLG over that span is .404. If we take a closer look we can see that Torrealba's BABIP has been an even .400. The typical BABIP is around .300. Although I do feel there are certain reasons that a player can have a higher than normal BABIP (such as speed, or gap power), YT doesn't have any of those. Even if he did, a BABIP that high is way beyond what any hitter can produce over a long span. It is pretty clear that he has been very fortunate over that span. Even with a .325 BABIP over that stretch, YT would have posted a very light .255/.313/.340 line. So unless the balls keep finding holes at that incredible rate, Torrealba's productivity should be expected to drop.<br /><br />Meanwhile Chris Ianetta's BABIP has been a very low .253. If he has a more normal BABIP of .300, he add 9 hits to his total, bringing his AVG up to a more respectable .261. What about all those strikeouts? CI finished the year with 75 k's in only 289 at-bats. If his strikeout rate was reduced to the league average of 20 percent, he'd cut his total to 58 strikeouts. That is significant, but at his current BABIP would only give him 5 additional base hits, and a .244 AVG. So while a reduction in strikeouts would add a small increase in productivity, having a few more balls fall in would be even better.<br /><br />Another advantage that Iannetta has, is the ability to draw walks. In 332 plate appearances, Chris has drawn 43 walks, a rate of 13%. Although his AVG is sitting at .228, his OBP is a respectable .344.<br /><br />The most important thing to consider in this issue is Iannetta's platoon splits. He has struggled versus right handers this year, batting .202/.320/.413. Versus left-handers he has hit .296/.406/.580 with 4 homers and 9 doubles in 92 plate appearances. Of course his career numbers are <em>only</em> .265/.379/.530. With a team that has struggled to hit left handed pitching, you can't afford to leave that type of production on the bench.<br /><br />Hopefully the Rockies' management will soon figure out the catching situation before it's too late. In the worst case scenario, they need to set this up as platoon with CI starting against lefties.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-43602122031922901682009-09-29T03:28:00.000-05:002009-09-29T04:35:19.409-05:00Up NextHere I am almost, a year later writing my 2nd post. What a difference a year makes. Matt Holliday is gone, which I am still saddened by, yet the Rockies are still leading the Wild-Card race with less than a week to go. How are they doing it? Pitching, probably. I am not really concerned about that right now, WhaI'd rather look at the hitters? The offense has improved significantly over the past year. In 2008, the Rockies scored 747 runs. In 2009, they have scored 771 as of Sept 27. That's an increase of about a third of a run per game, which puts them on pace for 801 runs. They've done so after losing one of the best hitters in the NL, in Holliday. What's different? Simple. A vastly improved top of the order.<br /><br />This year's core group of Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzales, and Seth Smith have put up a .266/.354/.429 line while leading off and .263/.324/.465 while batting 2nd. Those numbers for 2nd hitters is weighed down by Clint Barmes getting most of those ab's the first half of the season. Regardless, those lines are much better than the .251/.311/.349 and .260/.311/.376 lines from a year ago.<br /><br />So the Rockies may not have the power in the middle of the order like they used to. However if the table setters keep getting on, they will be a very dangerous lineup in the postseason.webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6203148029227367005.post-35526850045484890362008-11-08T06:59:00.000-06:002008-11-08T08:13:53.564-06:00Leading OffIn 2008, the Colorado Rockies scored 747 runs. That was good enough to easily lead the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">NL</span> West. However that was only the 18<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">th</span> highest total in the majors. In 2007, on their way to the World Series, the Rocks scored 867 runs, fifth best overall. So what happened? While it's easy to point out drop offs by Matt <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Holliday</span> and Garrett Atkins and injuries to Todd <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Helton</span> and Troy <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Tulowitzki</span>, there is much more to the story. I have a theory as to what really happened.<br /><br />After, it didn't take long for me to notice that the Rockies were having a tough time scoring. At one point I was watching a game on TV when <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Holliday</span> hit a solo shot in the first inning. It hit me then, that in all the games I'd seen since coming back, that was the first run I'd seen the Rockies score in the first inning. I also thought to myself "I don't think I've seen them even get a man on base in the first." (Matt was in a bit of slump at that point.) A few days later, I was at the ballpark. With Clint <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Barmes</span> batting, I looked up at the scoreboard to check out his stats and saw something completely shocking, but not really. In over 350 pa, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Barmes</span> had drawn just 16 walks. This was the guy hitting 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">nd</span> in the order. <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Leadoff</span> man Willy <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Taveras</span>, wasn't doing much better. It was obvious at that point, the Rockies offense was struggling because the "table setters" weren't getting on base. Recently, I came across my proof.<br /><br />Rockies <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">leadoff</span> hitters combined for an avg./obp./slg. of .251/.311/.349. The number two hitters combined to go .260/.311/.376. Those were easily the two biggest holes in the line up. Even the number eight hitters went .272/.345/.439. (The eighth hitters actually had <em>slightly</em> better numbers than the six and seven hitters). In 2007, the top two spots went .279/.335/.351 and .280/.339/.442.<br /><br />The combo of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Barmes</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Taveras</span>, and an injured <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Tulo</span> simply get it done at the top. While <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Tulo</span> should bounce back I wouldn't expect <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Barmes</span> are <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Taveras</span> to. On a side note, after <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Tulo</span> came back and was hitting well, Clint Hurdle kept <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Barmes</span> in the two hole until the final few weeks while <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Tulo</span> was stuck near the bottom.<br /><br />So what should the Rockies do this <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">off season</span>, besides go after pitching which everybody needs? The answer is obvious, get a high quality lead off man to go in front the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">bashers</span>. By <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">bashers</span>, I mean Matt <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Holliday.</span>webgem14http://www.blogger.com/profile/17477393314419556375noreply@blogger.com0