Monday, October 5, 2009

The Case for Chris Iannetta

Even before this happened, I've been saying the same thing to anybody that would listen: Chris Iannetta should be the Rockies' starting catcher. Unfortunately a lot of people out there don't, most importantly Jim Tracy, don't seem to agree. With the playoffs starting soon, I think now is the time to lay out my case.

Iannetta's critics like to point out a number of things why he shouldn't be in there. His .228 batting average and high strikeouts have doomed Iannetta in the eyes of many. Of course the biggest road block for Iannetta has been that his replacement has been on fire.

Since taking over the starting job on Aug 29, Yorvit Torrealba has had an AVG of .319 with an OBP of .373. Both numbers are very good, but his SLG over that span is .404. If we take a closer look we can see that Torrealba's BABIP has been an even .400. The typical BABIP is around .300. Although I do feel there are certain reasons that a player can have a higher than normal BABIP (such as speed, or gap power), YT doesn't have any of those. Even if he did, a BABIP that high is way beyond what any hitter can produce over a long span. It is pretty clear that he has been very fortunate over that span. Even with a .325 BABIP over that stretch, YT would have posted a very light .255/.313/.340 line. So unless the balls keep finding holes at that incredible rate, Torrealba's productivity should be expected to drop.

Meanwhile Chris Ianetta's BABIP has been a very low .253. If he has a more normal BABIP of .300, he add 9 hits to his total, bringing his AVG up to a more respectable .261. What about all those strikeouts? CI finished the year with 75 k's in only 289 at-bats. If his strikeout rate was reduced to the league average of 20 percent, he'd cut his total to 58 strikeouts. That is significant, but at his current BABIP would only give him 5 additional base hits, and a .244 AVG. So while a reduction in strikeouts would add a small increase in productivity, having a few more balls fall in would be even better.

Another advantage that Iannetta has, is the ability to draw walks. In 332 plate appearances, Chris has drawn 43 walks, a rate of 13%. Although his AVG is sitting at .228, his OBP is a respectable .344.

The most important thing to consider in this issue is Iannetta's platoon splits. He has struggled versus right handers this year, batting .202/.320/.413. Versus left-handers he has hit .296/.406/.580 with 4 homers and 9 doubles in 92 plate appearances. Of course his career numbers are only .265/.379/.530. With a team that has struggled to hit left handed pitching, you can't afford to leave that type of production on the bench.

Hopefully the Rockies' management will soon figure out the catching situation before it's too late. In the worst case scenario, they need to set this up as platoon with CI starting against lefties.

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