My Thoughts on Sabermetrics

Sabermetrics, if you've never heard of it, is the use of various statistical methods to evaluate baseball players and teams. It is actually somewhat controversial because many people in MLB like to stick to their traditions, and sabermetrics flies in the face of that. There are countless jokes about sabermetricians all living in their mom's basement and don't actually watch the games. In spite of the resistance, the use of sabermetrics has actually become more common in recent years. Several teams, most notably the Oakland A's, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox have used high level analysis to help build their teams.

I decided to start blogging with the hopes I can add something to the science. If nothing else, I could provide a unique perspective to my hometown team, the Colorado Rockies. Before I go further with my work there are a few thoughts on the science I would like to share.

First of all, I actually believe that sabermetrics backs up a lot of what traditional baseball thinking has always taught. For example, the old saying "Don't make the first or third out at third base" can be supported using sabermetrics. Of course you shouldn't be willing to make any outs, but the 1st and third are especially damaging. I also think that things that happen on the field can be explained using sabermetrics, such as a player who seems to always find the hole may indeed have a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

I don't necessarily agree with everything that sabermetrics tends to support. For one thing I don't believe there is a tell all statistic. Every stat tells you something about a different player's ability. Even though, on-base percentage (OBP) is more valuable than batting average (AVG), I don't think it's totally useless. I do think that it can show the likelihood of a batter driving in a runner in "scoring position." Of course a high slugging percentage (SLG) will indicate a batter is more likely to drive in a runner who is NOT in scoring position. There is also the notion that sabermetrics is only about walks and home runs. I would disagree and feel that it is also about singles, doubles, and the occasional triple. Another common belief among stat guys, that I don't really believe, is that pitchers have no control over their BABIP.

I am doing this for the fun of it and to hopefully gain more insight to the game. But if any team's GM reads this and wants to hire me, please send me a message. I'll get back to you right away. I also welcome any constructive comments about my work. However, if you're going to drop a "momma's basement" joke on me, you can get lost.

There are a number of projects that I plan to work on as I write. I plan to look closer at park factors, BABIP from the hitter's and the pitchers perspective, and would even like to do some work with Pitch F/X data. I am really excited about all of this. I only wish I had started doing this sooner. There's a lot of discoveries to be made, so I had better get to work.